The Bayesian Theory of Confirmation, Idealizations and Approximations in Science :: Scientific Papers

The Bayesian Theory of Confirmation, Idealizations and Approximations in Science ABSTRACT: My focus in this paper is on how the basic Bayesian model can be amended to reflect the role of idealizations and approximations in the confirmation or disconfirmation of any hypothesis. I suggest the following as a plausible way of incorporating idealizations and approximations into the Bayesian condition for incremental confirmation: Theory T is confirmed by observation P relative to background knowledge where I is the conjunction of idealizations and approximations used in deriving the prediction PT from T, PD expresses the discrepancy between the prediction PT and the actual observation P, and stands for logical entailment. This formulation has the virtue of explicitly taking into account the essential use made of idealizations and approximations as well as the fact that theoretically based predictions that utilize such assumptions will not, in general, exactly fit the data. A non-probabilistic analogue of the confirmation condition above that I offer avoids the 'old evidence problem, which has been a headache for classical Bayesianism. Idealizations and approximations like point-masses, perfectly elastic springs, parallel conductors crossing at infinity, assumptions of linearity, of "negligible" masses, of perfectly spherical shapes, are commonplace in science. Use of such simplifying assumptions as catalysts in the process of deriving testable predictions from theories complicates our picture of confirmation and disconfirmation. Underlying the difficulties is the fact that idealizing and approximating assumptions are already known to be false statements, and yet they are often indispensable when testing theories for truth. This aspect of theory testing has been long neglected or misunderstood by philosophers. In standard hypothetico-deductive, bootstrapping and Bayesian accounts of confirmation, idealizations and approximations are simply ignored. My focus in this paper is on how the basic Bayesian model can be amended to reflect the role of idealizations and approximations in the confirmation or disconfirmation o f an hypothesis. I suggest the following as a plausible way of incorporating idealizations and approximations into the Bayesian condition for incremental confirmation: Theory T is confirmed by observation P relative to background knowledge where I is the conjunction of idealizations and approximations used in deriving the prediction PT from T, PD expresses the discrepancy between the prediction PT and the actual observation P, and stands for logical entailment. This formulation has the virtue of explicitly taking into account the essential use made of idealizations and approximations as well as the fact that theoretically based predictions that utilize such assumptions will not, in general, exactly fit the data.

Living Like Weasels Essay

â€Å"Living Like Weasels†, by Annie Dillard, is a very complex essay with deep metaphorical meaning. In her essay, Dillard takes an interesting view of the way people could live; she describes how a weasel moves through life, suggesting humans take a similar approach. Bringing things back to a more primitive perspective of instinct and simplicity, she explores through symbolic imagery, why humans should latch on to their one passion in life and never let it go. Many people may think it is strange to suggest that a human being should live like an animal such as the weasel. However, a weasel exhibits a variety of desirable traits that we humans yearn to attain. In the first part of Dillard’s essay, she gives a brief introduction of what a weasel is and the sort of tendencies that they have. She then goes on to tell an elaborate story of a man who shot an eagle out of the sky only to find that a weasel was fixed by its jaws to the eagle’s throat. Dillard states, â€Å"The supposition is that the eagle had pounced on the weasel and the weasel swiveled and bit as instinct taught him, tooth to neck, and nearly won.† The weasel acted upon instinct, disregarding the size and power of the eagle. Dillard uses this bizarre image to show her admiration for the instinct and determination of this small creature, as well as a basis for the premise of her essay. Further into her essay, Dillard brilliantly ties her thoughts together. She states, â€Å"Time and events are merely poured, unremarked, and ingested directly, like blood pulsed into my gut through a jugular vein†¦The thing is to stalk your calling in a certain skilled and supple way, to locate the most tender and live spot and plug into that pulse.† Here, Dillard creates a clear picture of what she believes to be the best way to find your one true passion. Somewhat like how the weasel instinctively bit onto the eagle’s neck, she suggests that humans stalk their one passion and then hold on wherever it takes them. Dillard sums up the main idea of her entire essay in the last paragraph. She says, â€Å"I think it would be well, and proper, and obedient, and pure, to grasp your one necessity and not let it go, to dangle from it limp wherever it takes you. Then even death, where you’re going no matter how you live, cannot you part. Seize it and let it seize you up aloft even, till your eyes burn out and drop†. With this statement, Dillard more directly states  that people should do as the weasel does. Just as the weasel grabbed onto the eagle, humans should hang on to their one passion, because even through death and whatever else is to come, what you have grabbed onto will last forever. Throughout Dillard’s essay she uses key phrases such as â€Å"ingested†, â€Å"latch on†, â€Å"grasp†, â€Å"plug into the pulse†, or even â€Å"jaws†. All of these are phrases that allude to the segment earlier in her essay about the weasel that fearlessly latches onto the throat of an eagle, refusing to let go. These phrases create an extremely clear and even somewhat violent scenario, but they are all components to what Dillard believes humans should practice in their every day lives. Through a series of metaphors and symbolic imagery, Dillard is able to convey her philosophy towards life: to latch onto a certain passion and not let it go even through death. Although her idea is very intriguing, even romantic, the type of single mindedness and drive that she suggests could be somewhat dangerous. Having complex minds that are always aware of choices and different paths to take, the human species could not function under such restrictions as a weasel does. Although this is true, humans can strive for their goals and passions with great determination, yet unlike the weasel, have the benefit of having certain awareness for the consequences of their actions.

Mice and Men Essay

There are a number of characters in Of Mice and Men who have dreams of a better life. These characters include George, Lennie and Candy, who dream of a farm of their own, and Curley’s wife, who dreams of becoming a glamorous Hollywood actress. In this essay I will discuss their dreams and the effects on the novel’s characters when their dreams are unfulfilled. The central characters in Of Mice and Men are George and Lennie. Their dream is introduced to the reader in the first chapter, ‘OK. Someday we’re gonna get the jack together and we’re gonna have a little house and a couple of acres an’ a cow and some pigs and – ‘An’ live off the fatta the lan’,’ Lennie shouted. ‘An’ have rabbits. ‘ George and Lennie’s dream is to leave behind their lives as travelling workers and have a place of their own where they can settle down. For Lennie the dream of living on their own farm is closely connected to looking after rabbits. Perhaps this is because the only way that Lennie can actually relate to the dream is through the idea of something practical and touchable which relates to his tactile qualities. Clearly, the material aspect of owning his own land means very little to Lennie. At the start of the novel we learn that Lennie likes to pet soft things, like mice and rabbits. It is this trait that eventually leads to Lennie’s downfall when he tries to smooth Curley’s wife’s soft hair. However, for George the dream of the farm has other benefits. Firstly, George can see the practical, economic advantage of owning their own place. ‘If I was bright, if I was even a little bit smart, I’d have my own little place, an’ I’d be bringin’ in my own crops, ‘stead of doin’ all the work and not getting what comes up outta the ground. ‘ Yet it is not just the practical benefits of owning a farm that attract George to this dream. We learn that George has no family – ‘I ain’t got no people’, and it seems as though the dream of a farm also represents the notion of ‘home’ to George. ‘An’ we’d keep a few pigeons to go flyin’ around the win’mill like they done when I was a kid’†¦ ‘We’d jus’ live there. We’d belong there. ‘ So, for George, the dream of a farm offers a psychological antidote to his rootless, travelling life and gives him a sense of belonging. Another attraction of the farm dream is that it gives George the promise of some sense of control and autonomy in his life. In his conversation with Candy about owning a farm, George says: ‘S’pose they was a carnival or a circus come to town, or a ball game, or any damn thing. ‘ Old Candy nodded in appreciation of the idea. ‘We’d just go to her,’ George said. ‘We wouldn’t ask nobody if we could. Jus’ say ‘We’ll go to her’, an’ we would’. This shows how powerless George feels in his life and how much power employers exercised over their workers at that time. Another example of George and Lennie’s powerlessness is shown after Lennie’s fight with Curley, the boss’s son; when George’s immediate concern is that they will be ‘canned’ or dismissed. However, in this situation, they retain their jobs because Slim steps in and persuades Curley to say he got his hand caught in a machine. In Chapter 2 when George and Lennie discuss their dream they are overheard by Candy, the old swamper. Candy is immediately swept up with the idea of owning their own farm and offers his savings to them to make the dream come true. At this point in the novel it seems as if the dream could actually become a reality. They fell into silence. They looked at one another, amazed. This thing they had never really believed in was coming true. George said reverently, ‘Jesus Christ! I bet we could swing her. ‘ His eyes were full of wonder. What is interesting is that at this point in the novel the dream of the farm actually moves from being a pipe dream which will probably never happen, to an achievable goal which is actually within their grasp. It is Candy’s involvement that makes this change take place. Although Candy shares George’s reasons for wanting a farm, there is also an extra dimension for Candy wanting to live on their own place. We get the sense that Candy feels redundant, useless and vulnerable because he is old and has lost his hand. Candy feels uneasy about his future: ‘ â€Å"They’ll can me purty soon. Jus’ as soon as I can’t swamp out no bunk houses they’ll put me on the county. â€Å"‘ So for Candy the dream of the farm means independence – ‘nobody could can us’, because in his present situation he is entirely dependent on the boss’s tolerance and charity. In the novel, this is partially demonstrated by Carlson shooting Candy’s dog earlier that evening. In an echo of Candy’s own situation of the ranch, Carlson, without much pity or concern, shoots Candy’s dog because he is old and it is inconvenient to keep him because of the smell. It is not hard to imagine that Candy feels there is a parallel between his own situation and his dog’s. Candy’s attachment to the dream of their own farm is demonstrated in Chapter 5 when he realises that all hopes of the dream have come crashing down when he discovers Curley’s wife’s dead body: ‘You God damn tramp’, he said viciously. ‘You done it, di’n’t you? I s’pose you’re glad. Ever’body knowed you’d mess things up†¦ ‘If they was a circus or a baseball game †¦ we would of went to her †¦ Never ast nobody’s say so. ‘

Newspapers and Books Are Outdated Essay

As we move into the twenty- first century an increasing number of people are relying on new forms of technology. A possible consequence of this is that traditional media such as books and newspapers are not just less popular but are considered by some to be outdated. Personally, I disagree with this point of view. The principal reason why some people take this view is fairly clear in the case of newspapers. It is generally much easier and quicker to discover what is happening in the world from the internet or the television than from a newspaper. If you use Google or another search engine or simply switch on the television, you can instantly get the latest news bulletin. A newspaper, by contrast, is out of date the moment it is published because it contains yesterday’s news. It is perhaps less obvious why books are said to be out of fashion. One possibility is that fewer people choose to read for pleasure nowadays because they prefer the instant gratification and thrills of modern technology. There is less effort involved in enjoying a 3D movie or playing a computer game than in turning the pages of a book. My own view and conclusion is that books and newspapers will never go completely out of fashion or become redundant. The reason for this is that they serve basic human needs. I believe that people will always want to read about the news and escape into the imaginary worlds of great novels. However, books and newspapers may need to change to meet the new demands of twenty-first century consumers. We can already see this happening with the arrival of the audio-book and the various free newspaper internet sites.

Nuclear Power Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Nuclear Power - Essay Example This article will focus on nuclear power focusing on potential advantages and disadvantages. Research shows that nuclear energy is sustainable, however; this form of energy has also been associated with the numerous threats it poses to the environment. Some of the most common nuclear disasters known include the Three Mile Island Accident (1979), Chernobyl disaster (1986) and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster (2011) (Cravens, 2007). However, experts are still carrying out research regarding safety improvements in nuclear energy. This is with the sole aim of finding out if nuclear power’s hazardous side can be eliminated. This will then ensure that opponents of nuclear power embrace its creation, testing and ultimate use. The countries that have significantly invested in nuclear energy include the China, United States and Japan. In this case, the United States was recognized as the largest producer of nuclear energy. In most cases, nuclear energy is employed in propulsion of ships (nuclear marine propulsion), production of electricity and space vehicles among other uses. In the past, most of the countries used nuclear power in construction of weapons of mass destruction. This was most prevalent in the World War II era (Cravens, 2007). In conclusion, nuclear power has been identified as a conventional fuel resource. This involves the use of the uranium element which is a constituent of dirt and rocks found in large water bodies. Furthermore, the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) is an international organization which was set up to promote the safety awareness of nuclear facilities (Cravens,

Organisational Behaviour Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words - 2

Organisational Behaviour - Essay Example Formal leadership is effective in managing and organizing people in an organization. Thus, leadership becomes incredibly important as it draws the line between organization success, failure or satisfaction and lack of it among the employees (Culbert 5). This paper is going to discuss effective leadership in an organization and the challenges of leadership. Leadership is very important in every workplace as it maximizes efficiency and allows employees to achieve goals set by the organization. Leadership is the starting point of all the actions that takes place in the organization, that is, the leader starts by informing the staff members on the organization rules, policies and regulation and describes all that needs attention by the workers. Thus, the leader sets the pace and the workers follow hence initiates all the actions involved in running the organization (Johnson 22). In addition, leadership entails motivating fellow employees with economic or non-economic rewards such as prom otion, which will ensure employees give their best of performance to the organization. With this motivation, the leader in the organization ensures that the employees maximize their potential and enhances organizations performance. Guidance also comes from leadership, as the leader has the responsibility to outline all the policies of the organization. With good leadership from a good leader, all employees will work under the rules set by the leader ensuring that all the employees work and flow together on their work (Kouzes and Posner19). Subsequently, effective leadership helps to build the confidence of the employees. For instance, a leader in the organization will provide guidance to the employees and constantly monitor and listen to the employee’s needs and demands pertaining to their job. This will help employee’s understand that the leader is concerned about their welfare and is among them, hence enhancing their confidence. Consequently, leadership helps to buil d an efficient and effective working environment, in that, it ensures that goals are achieved, an element of management. This working environment promotes the relationships among the workers as it provides an understanding in the work place (Giulian and Kurson 38). Leaders should also take time to listen to their employees’ problems and try to solve them, this will in fact promote one on one relationship between the workers enhancing working environment. Nevertheless, in matters of personal interest and the organization interest, leadership will synchronize the two interests’ ensuring that all the interest are met through coordination. All these factors above are vital for the growth and development of any organization and workplace. Without leadership, an organization will have no formality of running its operations preventing it from achieving its objectives. Hence, every successful business lays great leadership (Harrison, Greenfield, Fiorina, and Chambers 26). Bad leadership directly or indirectly harms the organization. It pushes away hardworking and skilled staff due to bad leadership, as this has a direct impact on the economic performance and general growth of the organization. In spite of leadership being a great thing for an organization, it never misses challenges that prevent it

Comparing and Contrasting Culture and Education in Saudi Arabia and Essay

Comparing and Contrasting Culture and Education in Saudi Arabia and The USA - Essay Example or Mr. as titles. University students however can just call their professors by their first names and mostly, they are encouraged by their professors to do so, which in Saudi would be unpleasant to the ears and may be deemed a sign of disrespect so that adaptation has been difficult for me in this area. In addition, I also observed the form of instruction in the schools. American schools are interactive, with the teachers encouraging the students to participate in discussions, arguing about the subject matter and voicing out their minds with the teacher ready to aid them in channeling their thought to the right decisions, which is greatly different in my country where most of the talking comes from the teacher. The students are expected to sit down and listen in return, never challenging, negotiating or discussing the topic whether an individual agrees or disagrees, a student’s duty is to keep his mouth shut. Christianity is the widely embraced religion in America and the gove rnment founded its constitution in Christian beliefs. Saudi on the other hand established her laws from Islamic ideologies. Although both religions claim an identical story of creation and trace their ancestry to the same patriarchs, the differentiation would be as the names suggest, between the prophets Muhammad and Christ as well as their teachings. Speaking of government, the form used in Saudi is monarchy with council of ministers and consultative council helping the king in his government affairs. The king’s authority is limited because of the context of his role indicated in the Shari’a and other traditions (U.S. Department of State). America on the other hand,... This paper approves that media could be found to be a common phenomenon, affecting the countries’ success and legislation through the distribution of highly competent publications not only in the native tongues of both countries but in other languages as well. Legal issues and individual concepts are placed into the assessment of different sectors as the media make available the information released through broadcast or paper. And this is not just for people to express their interpretations of events but in response to the shared belief of a better environment we all could make. America has a greater number of immigrants from a wider scale of immigrants than that of Saudi. thais paper makes a conclusion that Nations could be entirely different but the fact cannot be denied that somehow, we are somewhat related to each other in unique ways. Looking at the data discussed in this paper, one could easily come up with an analysis of the approach a nation could employ in the making of its policies to meet the specific needs of different nations as each are different. A characteristic may be stronger in one nation than the other but this does not mean that the virtue is solely for that particular nation. In conclusion, as each have varied resources, nations should get involved in the exchange of benefits to build a global relationship that allows every nation to survive in this chaotic world.